As of this morning, zero cash, 30% margin (30% of my equity value is margin).
short term forecasts
Naz rises to 4300-4400 through October and the election, with perhaps roughness tomorrow and next week. Since no capitulation this week or next and no significance to FOMC meeting, the initial rallying may be kind of lethargic. Weak post-election, back on track in December to 4800-5000. I plan to bail out of most everything last week of December and first week of January.
favorite stocks
NTAP, SEBL, MERQ, ARBA, EXDS -- basic strong tech growth stocks, all (but EXDS) have hit new all-time highs in last couple of weeks, should be good for 35-50% from here thru December. Beta of 2 or so to the NASDAQ.
AVCI, SCMR, EXTR -- Network and internet buildout stocks, I expect this to be a strong bubble thru December. Got the positions over the last couple of days, should be good for 75-100% thru December. Beta of 3 or so to the NASDAQ. JNPR is the best quality company in this space, but is too highly priced. Avoiding CORV like the plague, $20B market cap and zero revenues plus IPO lockup expiration in 4 weeks is asking for disaster.
RMBS -- I think they are the clear winner in the computer memory patent arena, expect $200-300 by end of December (with a short squeeze or two in there). Stock will be totally news driven. Very similar to QCOM at this time last year, an IP company, probable lock on a very large market, nobody knows how much they'll make but it looks like a lot, etc etc. October earnings should blow everyone's socks off (will include first Sony Playstation installments).
Picked up a bunch of Jan 2001 $60 calls on INTC this week (and some October $50 calls to be honest <g>), and have major Jan call positions on RMBS.
Above is all intuitive-based on my part, plus I listen to 4 or 5 specific SI posters who I judge to have a good feel for the market and stocks.
- Dway (recent lurker) |
