Hey Dr. Bob - here's my two cents.
My sense is that we'll probably have a moderate relief rally over the next 5-7 days as the September books are closed and funds start doing a little bottom fishing. But I don't see any real movement until some key companies start reporting earnings. 3,600 should give us plenty of support until then. Where we go from there will depend on two things: the growth numbers of the leaders and the presidential election. If leaders come in with kick ass earnings and growth, I don’t see why we couldn’t get back to 5,000 by February. If their numbers aren’t impressive, I think the Naz could easily get back to its lows of the year by the end of November - especially when you add in all the tax-loss selling that's going to kick in - before we see any kind of real rally.
One thing that still concerns me is that many of the top tech names - AMCC, NTAP, BRCD, JNPR, BRCM, CIEN, SEBL, etc. are still far too expensive to build a rally on. I mean, where are they gonna go? From $250 to $500? I don't see it. This isn't 1999. Something's going to bring 'em back down to earth first. Just MHO.
My top picks include those above, plus GLW, CHKP, and BEAS. I'd also add in INSP, BVSN, and dare I say, CMGI. All three have been unjustly obliterated.
Thanks. GT |
