13:38 ET ******
DSL Equipment : Beware the ides of March - Beware the holders of DSL equipment stocks....This morning Paradyne Networks (PDYN 5 7/8 -4 1/8) came out with a very harshly worded warning: "A few of our network service provider customers have changed their plans for rolling out DSL services and we no longer believe these customers will purchase significant amounts of our equipment. Based on meetings with these customers, they did not replace Paradyne with another DSL supplier, but they have changed their equipment purchasing plans. These changes are unfortunate and we are disappointed by the effect they have on our results."....PDYN is trading at 5 7/8, down 42% today - and that's on top of a fall from $25 a month ago. At least one analyst has come out in defense of the sector arguing that it is a company-specific problem, but we have our doubts especially with the Verizon (VZ) strike earlier this quarter....The warning is especially troubling because PDYN's customers are not replacing orders with other suppliers. On the flip side, if these names survive the warnings season and report good numbers then the stock gains traction over a day or two, they could fly after that. We do caution, however, we would not hold them longer than 4 weeks after the reporting date as they could easily trade down going into the next warnings season. Of course, if the company misses its quarter or guides down numbers, all bets are off.....Names we would be uncomfortable holding during the earnings warning season include Copper Mountain (CMTN), Efficient (EFNT), Westell (WSTL), Netopia (NTPA) and Orckit (ORCT). If you want to continue to hold these names, consider buying an insurance policy. Buying a Put option with a strike price right below its current price would help to hedge against downside risk. Also, be sure that the option expires after the earnings release - see our earnings calendar for reporting dates. -- Robert J. Reid, Briefing.com |
