re: big money isn't patient.
Well, that's true. I've gotten rich, by buying stocks when the outlook for the next 6-12 months is horrible, and the longer-term outlook is excellent. Hopefully, my MSFT purchase last May fits that description. I don't mind waiting. I expect to. But I will consider my purchase a failure if I got in way too early, and way too high.
Today's bounce, considering the Nas is up 100 points, is pitiful. It indicates that, when the Nas has a 100-point down day, MSFT is going to plunge. I've got a drunk monkey in the dark, throwing darts at a dartboard, and he makes my short-term market predictions for me. I've found this method works as well as any other.
I think the Court's decision to not decide (into the indefinite far future), should have decreased uncertainty. It means that MSFT can do whatever they want, with a free hand. It means they can consolidate their browser dominance, and continue their other web ventures. So, my guess is that the stock's decline from 80 back to 60, indicates the market is worried about Microsoft's business, not the courts. If there is an Intel-type warning coming up, we should expect a further 20% haircut (60 to 48, ugh!)This is just a guess. Or maybe this is just random motion within a 60-80 trading range, signifying nothing. Since I am uncertain, I will probably just sit on my hands. And watch carefully. |
