Jason W -- that was a great post.
I too have put a significant percentage of my invested assets in "shiny pebbles" -- CREE, AVNX and LNOP (recent Gilder pick) for example. I do presently like certain of the gorillas and kings -- I was lucky to get into UNPH before it was JDSU, but I almost completely missed the boat on QCOM in 1999 (other than a few short term trades, I didn't ride it up, didn't ride it down).
I have recently decided that basically, where Moore's gorilla and king framework intersects with Gilder's page 8 Telecosm table is where I feel most comfortable investing the bulk of my money. Note that CSCO, INTC, MSFT and ORCL (the old "4 horsemen") are not on Gilder's list. JDSU and QCOM are his two most celebrated companies. SUNW has been on the list from the outset (1996). NT is there, as is CIEN.
Like you, compared to the silverhairs on this thread, I am relatively young -- 31 years old. I have been actively investing my own money since high school.
While investing in non-gorillas and non-kings may be anathema to the entire premise behind gorilla gaming, the metrics laid out by Moore and expanded upon by the participants of this thread do set up a tantalizing framework for potentially identifying future kings and pongids. Shiny pebbles. Gorilla game blasphemy, I know.
The whole technology cycle has accelerated so much, so fast in the last year and a half, that it becomes difficult to be a "long term buy and hold" investor, no matter how good the company. Look at LU and INTC, and even CSCO, all of which I believe are presently under siege. I would not be comfortable tucking any stock away for 2 or 3 years right now without checking the price regularly.
Here's a question for the thread: Can Christiensen's disruptive technolgies theories be adequately reconciled with Moore LTBH gorilla gaming? Another huge wrench in the gorilla game theory, of course, as we have seen, is the enforcement of antitrust law (MSFT).
So, in a nutshell, I guess I'll take Gilder's list, cross-pollinate it with some gorilla game theory, always with my eyes on disruptions from below and an overeager DOJ/FTC.
Just some ramblings from a lurker. I love this thread. Talk about the power of a network. I bet there are 50 to 100 non-paying lurkers for every paying contributor, and believe me, some of them are managing a lot of other people's money here in Gotham. Oh, and by the way, Don Mosher's series on WIND was incredible. Count me in. kirk |
