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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates

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To: LindyBill who wrote (32525)	9/28/2000 6:25:16 PM
From: mtnlady	Read Replies (1) of 54805

On valuation... well there's 'high' and then theres REALLY high! <g> NT is not that high. SEBL is getting very high - historically (mike is right I just checked their PE and have never seen it this high before). NTAP is through the roof. ITWO is to the universe and beyond <g!>... saying all of that .. We all know NTAP, SEBL, ITWO etc.. will keep growing. On demand... I think your assesment is right on the money (up optical and down voice). Also all of the industry figures show huge tornado like growth. This is vouched for by all the top companies CEO's. Nortel's Roth just guided analysts even HIGHER a few weeks back. And Roth has a reputation for being conservative (NT has blown out earnings last few times). Couple this with Roth's statements that customers demand could go down quite a bit before supply would even come close to demand. Corning, JDSU and NT spending millions (and billions) on growing as fast as humanly possible. High barriers to entry are making this a 2-3 company race in almost every sector. JDSU/SDLI and NT being the undisputed kings of their respected niches. And what do we have on the 'slowing demand' side?? Nothing but one or two analysts that are not widely respected to begin with (read the NT thread to see the calls today's downgrade analyst has made in the past). AND they have no numbers to back them up! Only their opinion gleemed from their reportedly phoning several of Nortel and Cisco's customers! Don't you think Roth and Chambers would be polling their customer base as well? Yes. And I am sure that Roth wouldn't leave himself open to a law suit by telling analysts - just weeks ago - to UPGRADE Nortel's forward projected revenue estimates because they were too low!

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