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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates
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To: mkelly761 who wrote (32558)9/28/2000 10:04:38 PM
From: Seeker of Truth  Read Replies (1) of 54805
 
It's been said that only liars buy at the bottom and sell at the top. Now that has to be an exaggeration because somebody has to be selling at the very top and somebody has to be buying at the very bottom, but the chance that the same person is there at both places and that his last name is Kelly or Bersohn or Buckley is slim. Let's face up to the fact that nobody knows when the top will be or at what price. Mike Buckley keeps bringing up the valuation issue, not so much for the purpose of finding out at what price we should sell X, but whether Y is more attractive than X. Then we can use cash more efficiently. Currently I find QCOM more appealing than CSCO even though they both are gorillas. So I would use cash to buy the former rather than the latter. but I wouldn't sell CSCO to raise cash to buy QCOM unless it was more than half my portfolio. My advice is to forget about finding out when to sell and where to sell, but think about the reasons why the company is or is not executing well, whether the market for its products is or is not expanding etc. By studying the company and its industry we can better appreciate the reasons for holding on. Or, if the company has begun some kind of permanent decline we can begin to see that and sell when the outlook has changed not when the price has reached a certain magic level.
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