Maoists Pushing Nepal Closer to India
Summary
Instability is again on the rise along the volatile border between
India and China. Each country seeks influence among buffer states
with one win so far in either corner: Myanmar for China, Bhutan for
India. Nepal, the lone hold out, tries to maintain a balance
between the two great powers, although the growing threat of Maoist
insurgent attacks will probably move Nepal into the Indian camp.
Analysis
The latest round of Maoist assaults on Nepalese police stations,
two this week, shows the insurgency gaining ground in geography and
numbers. The recent attack, which Maoists claim is their most
successful in western Nepal, is part of an escalating five-year
campaign that has killed over a thousand Nepalese.
In the past, China and India have battled for economic and security
influence in the buffer states along their border. The effort to
establish close security ties has been especially apparent in
Bhutan, where India has requested Bhutan's assistance and offered
military training to drive out Indian rebel bases in Bhutan. In
Myanmar, the Chinese have had initial success in building a strong
relationship. Troubled by those ties, India has had marginal
success countering China's influence with development projects for
Myanmar.
The recent Maoist insurgent attacks illustrate the growing
significance of the insurgency threat in Nepal and its links to
separatist groups in India. The Communist Party of Nepal (Maoist)
CPN-M, which claimed responsibility for the attacks, has been
conducting an underground campaign since 1996 to topple Nepal's
constitutional monarchy and instill single communist party rule.
Maoists are not an official Nepalese political party and not the
main Communist Party in Nepal -- the United Marxist Leninists
(UML).
Over the summer, there have been four notable changes in Maoist
tactics: support base, size, weaponry, and money.
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Initially Maoists support was primarily in the western highlands,
but is now growing in almost a third of Nepal. The size of the
group also seems to have grown. A unit used to number 10 to 20
insurgents, but the most recent attack involved over 100
insurgents.
The insurgents steal money, arms and other valuables during raids,
to acquire funds for purchasing arms, ammunition or training from
supporters. For example, Maoists used automatic rifles in the
recent assault.
Significantly, Nepal and India agree that Maoist support comes from
Indian separatist groups such as the People's War Group in Andha
Pradesh and the Maoist Coordination Center in Bihar. Nepalese
police claim these groups have assisted Maoists in establishing
training camps and programs.
Nevertheless, due to strained relations between India and Nepal,
the two governments have had difficulty working together to tackle
this joint threat since the December 1999 hijacking of an Indian
Air flight from Nepal's Tribhuvan International Airport. Following
that event, security issues replaced trade issues as the dominant
concern in Indian-Nepal relations.
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Nepalese Prime Minister Girija Prasad Koirala recently met with
Indian officials to discuss the Maoist insurgency. India seeks
greater security cooperation with Nepal especially regarding
Maoists and Indian separatist groups. India also claims the Maoists
and the Pakistani Inter Services Intelligence (ISI) are working
together to destabilize India.
The growing incentive for security cooperation between India and
Nepal is not lost on China. The Chinese are making efforts to
reduce Nepal's significant economic dependence on India. Nepal and
China have joint interests in trade, transportation links, and
Tibetan stability. Recently, China said it intends to improve the
transportation infrastructure in its western states and work on
linking Nepal to this infrastructure through transit points. These
Chinese efforts worry India.
Across the China-India border tension simmers. China and India
continue their quest for influence. Myanmar and Bhutan appear to
have chosen sides. Will Nepal choose sides? Nepal's growing
insurgency with ties to Indian separatists will require closer
Indian-Nepalese security cooperation. This cooperation, which
could follow the pattern of Indian training assistance to Bhutan,
will affect Chinese economic and security interests in Nepal.
Nepal's decision will make it the tiebreaker buffer state, with the
advantage likely to go to India.
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