Jim McMannis,
RE:"Apple carries 1/10th the weight of Intel in the PC industry. Why should a warning from them matter"
<<The press release blamed a slowdown in September sales. Music to the ears of semi sector bears. Kind of like what Intel said...thus confirming it...>>
Being very long AMD, I kind of hate to agree with you on this. AMD is in a catch-22 situation: If the analysts interpret Apple's news as confirmation of a pc slowdown, then even good AMD earnings may be overshadowed by the market's mood - kind of like breaking the bank, but you're in the casino room of the Titanic, and no one gives a s**t because they're trampling each other to get to the exits. The analytic community has most often failed to differentiate AMD from anything else in the sector for ages now. If that continues to hold true (and it'll be interesting to see if INTC's news of a P4 delay, if it has impact, also drags AMD down as we've seen a dozen times in the past few months), then the underlying reality of AMD's business that a lot of folks here are aware of won't mean beans, as most analysts don't dig that deep, and their word carries weight. As has happened for so long, the *perception* of the street will take precedence over the facts, unfair or not, at least in the short term. So, in short, if AMD is in fact in the same boat of slow demand that appears to be becoming the consensus view of analysts (see the quotes/stories in the last 20 posts), it'll get murdered, along with everything else. If that's not true, it may still get punished for the perception that it's in the same boat. The next few days could be very rocky, unless some analysts step up to rationalize Apple's and Intc's news and the street takes a deep breath. Man, I'm depressing myself as I write this. Gotta go get some Prozac. |
