Commentary--Lawrence McMillan for Thursday, September 28, 2000...
optionstrategist.com
Edited for ease of reading.
>>> Stock Market:
The three equity-only put-call ratios that we follow are all still on sell signals. As we've seen in the past, things can get nasty in October and thus we might see even higher readings from these ratios.
The good news, though, is that they are getting oversold. That is, they are at or near levels where buy signals have arisen in the past. Most of those buy signals were very good ones, too.
So, one should be alert for the buy signals that are certain to emerge from these ratios probably within a couple of weeks or so.
Other broad market measures:
...$OEX weighted and NASDAQ-100 ($NDX) weighted are both oversold and are rolling over to buy signals;
...$NDX normal is still on a sell signal, but is oversold like the charts at the top of the page;
...both the S&P 500 futures normal and weighted ratios are on sell signals as are the QQQ normal and weighted ratio, and none of these latter four are oversold.
Thus, one might draw a bit of encouragement from the $OEX and $NDX weighted ratios, but this group, overall, is not painting a bullish picture yet.
Our oscillator had fallen into oversold territory. Then it gave a buy signal as of Thursday's close (Sept 28th). This is a signal to cover short sales.
Overall, I think we will have a very good put-call ratio buy signal soon when the equity-only put-call ratios register to buy signals that confirm the one we've already received from the oscillator.<<< |
