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Technology Stocks : Citrix Systems (CTXS)

CTXS 103.90

0.0%

Nov 2 5:00 PM EST

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To: Cogito who wrote (8784)	9/29/2000 10:04:29 AM
From: Innuit	of 9068

The rules of the market keep changing. A year ago 120 a share for CTXS seemed high but was conisistent with the overall market sentiment that was rewarding companies that grew their business (but not necessarily their profits). In my opinion two watershed events changed the market psychology. First was the alarming article in Barron's about dot com burn rates, and second was the DOJ attack on MSFT. The former resulted in a clear message (which was not clear to me at the time) that this was now a nonforgiving market which would severely punish non-perfect "offenders". Profit warnings now routinely lead to stocks being destroyed even though the companies were still very strong and viable. We now were seeing the "lover scorned" phenonenon. Look what happened to LU, LGTO, ALLR (more recently), ITNC, AAPL (today)and others. The warning goes out over the internet. There is a rush to sell. The price plummets first on the warning (sometimes it had already fallen on the "private preannouncement to analysts), and then at earnings. The response is magnifiied by the huge number of sellers placing orders at the same time. What used to take days to filter down, now takes minutes. In the current context I believe CTXS has little downward risk compared to the possible upward gain. They have not warned. They will announce a new CEO. They have already been punished. The case against MSFT will take 2-3 years now. It is quite likely in my opinion that MSFT will take the plunge to takeover CTXS; if not SUNW or ORCL since their stocks are pricey. The theme behind "digital independence" is not that different from the current marketing themes of Oracle and Sun. Good luck to all the longs who hung on. We need it.

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