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Technology Stocks : COM21 (CMTO)
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To: Hassell Anderson who wrote (2284)9/29/2000 10:53:03 AM
From: nghi vu  Read Replies (1) of 2347
 
I too sold this stock long ago with a small profit and have little hope that this stock will see the high ever again. I dumped it after I concluded that the fierce competitions among the dozen plus players and the failures of all the players including the MSO to come up with a simple plug and play solution have strangle the ability of this industry to ramp up to its full potential. The demand has been there for years and they continue to fail to meet that. As the result, volume can't catch up to improve margin. I know various attempts and products have been made so far to simplify the installation process but way short of any expectations by far. I installed road runner last month after I bought a package(modem and all the wire & cables inside the box) from Circuit city and it still required the technichian to come in and spend almost an hour with the wiring to get it up. Last, he said there is no such thing as shortage of modem for them, the issue has been and always will be the rediculous time it take to add A Customer. For the longs that still hold on to the stock, I wish you all the best of luck.

I think the commodity nature is not yet fully priced in their stock. Yup, that might sound crazy but by any mean of valuation, I don't see any positive cashflow from them for years to come if ever. The traditional modem industry ramp up 10 time faster and all the players died a slow death with little profit to show and the cable modem industry is no different. I expect to see a wave of consolidation in this space next year and com21 is definitely one that will not be independent in my analysis.

p.s. any blame on parts shortage by any of these companies are plain shifting blame because they have been shipping more modems per quarter than the number installed.
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