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Technology Stocks : All About Sun Microsystems
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To: High-Tech East who wrote (35866)9/29/2000 12:15:12 PM
From: QwikSand  Read Replies (2) of 64865
 
From the Business Week article:

The good times should continue to roll for market leaders. Sun Microsystems Inc. (SUNW) is expected to grow around 40% for the next two quarters. ''I think this Net boom is in the first third of a nine-inning ball game,'' says Salomon Smith Barney analyst John B. Jones Jr.

The biggest risk facing server makers is one that's hard to combat: perceptions. This year's brisk market growth will be tough to match in 2001. For starters, it's artificially high, given low spending by corporations in late 1999 as they waited for Y2K to come and go. ''The easy compares become much more difficult in 2001,'' says Sanford C. Bernstein analyst Zlotnikov.

At the last conference call, Lehman did indeed say that "compares" would be more difficult in the coming fiscal year. However, among computer companies, Sun not only relied least on the Y2K excuse, but also pointedly made fun of those of its competitors that relied on it most. There's a good chance that SUNW will experience a jolt from a "compare" over the next four or five quarters where growth is only 35%, or some such nonsense. (Twister I remember one of your posts: "25%...Sun doesn't seem to be able to get away from that number.") There's not a good chance that the general revenue and profit trendline will change significantly during that time. Anybody who thinks telco spending for what George Gilder calls "storewidth" isn't going to accelerate over the next five-ten years has their head wedged so far up their butt they can see their own tonsils.

That article was a typical Time magazine-type article. A punchy headline followed by wishy-washy "might do this but then again might do that" prose that sums to zero. It was not even a weak prediction of a change of economic direction. It was mainstream-press space filler.

Thanks for posting it though, Ken.

--QS
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