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Pastimes : Clown-Free Zone... sorry, no clowns allowed

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To: Les H who wrote (23246)	9/29/2000 5:11:37 PM
From: pater tenebrarum	Read Replies (3) of 436258

yep...i have noticed that secondary lower Bradley lows after the first 'major' low are often not lows for the market. imo by the time the first cycle low is hit, the Fed should already be in massive liquidity injection mode to avert a derivatives meltdown. then we'll get the usual concerted market intervention stuff to pull us back from the precipice. it will be interesting to see whether gold will stay tame in the face of yet another frizzlebun printing orgy. one thing that's 'different this time' is that the crises of recent years were all centered somewhere outside the US. should this downturn evolve into something more serious, it may not be so easy to deflect it. that said, so far it is mainly the peripheral Asian markets that have collapsed once again. but their fundamental position in the form of forex reserves and trade balances is far healthier than is was in say '97-'98. the country with the most glaring imbalances is clearly the US. the argument that owning the reserve currency allows one to to run ever bigger external deficits without having to fear a backlash is spurious. a loss of confidence can destroy such mirages overnight.

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