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Technology Stocks : The *NEW* Frank Coluccio Technology Forum
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To: ftth who wrote (899)9/29/2000 7:07:18 PM
From: justone  Read Replies (3) of 46821
 
ftth:

This technology, satellite to the home (stth) reminds me of earlier technologies with satellites
even before the ill fated Iridium. Let me try some back of the envelope calculations:

Roughly:

- say @4.4 Kpbs real continuous data demand per active user (this is the total demand for
the user averaged over the web session)
- these users share 44 mbps as quoted in the press release
- peak demand is one active user per 5 subscribers

This means one satellite can handle ~50,000 subscribers.

Now the capitalization cost of 20K subscribers should not exceed 20 times the revenue at
say $50 per month. So, by one estimate, that capitalization should be less than $2,500,000 to let the system make a profit. I don't know, but
launching a satellite and building a ISP network seems like it might cost more than that.

In fact their whitepaper at their site notes "Although costs for satellite systems are
daunting‹estimates range from $4 billion to more than $10 billion for global
systems" with $700 to $1200 user costs estimated. If you had 100 LEO satellites (more
than the 88 for Iridium) this would be, say best case 40 million for the satellite, and $700 for
each user, for a mostly rural market. Iridium at least assumed high end users.

Low traffic capability and high capital is what usually sinks satellites, faster than gravity.

I don't think you will have to rename your alias to STTH any time soon.
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