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Technology Stocks : WDC/Sandisk Corporation

WDC 153.97

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3:27 PM EST

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To: luther yow who wrote (15205)	9/29/2000 9:07:05 PM
From: Ausdauer	of 60323

Luther, Here is yet another link from the link from Steve's... imergeconsulting.com This addresses Eli's statements that suggest that it is becoming increasingly harder to manufacture 8 MB CompactFlash for bundling in a cost efficient manner. And I still don't understand the concept of "chop-chop". The ICG Digital Camera Flash Memory Forecast and Market Overview, 1999-2004 ___________________________________________________________________________________ Two diverse business models drive the flash media market for digital cameras. Other market research and forecasts do not address the fact that two ASP models apply to this market. There is the digital camera bundled model opportunity where there is a one-to-one correlation of memory cards to memory capable digital cameras. This market opportunity also has the most downward pressure on flash memory ASP, due to the fact that digital camera vendors will not accept more costs than necessary for digital camera components, including memory. Nearly all bundled memory cards are 8 Mb in capacity and this trend will continue throughout 2000, except for new high-end consumer cameras with 3.0 mega-pixel resolution. This is expected to change in year 2001 when 16 Mb capacity cards are bundled. This model does not change from 16 Mb throughout the forecast period. A second but more important segment in terms of street value is the aftermarket opportunity. Average selling prices in this segment are typically higher with less downward pressure. Through our research, we found that the majority of aftermarket buyers purchase memory cards from 32 Mb to 48 Mb, opting to increase their capacity to what would typically be a roll of film or enough for a short vacation of shooting. Interviews were conducted with retailers, etailers and the top 3 memory vendors to ascertain the total aftermarket attach rate to each digital camera. This was applied to our forecast and is the central point along with ASP that the forecast is built around. Because of these two different business models, we have approached our forecast and modeling from these two different perspectives. Therefore, an ASP model, units shipped and street value from each model are provided and totaled to provide a view of the entire market opportunity. To order this report: email: tussy@ix.netcom.com or call: 650.631.5737 Aus

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