NNBM 30 Index - Annual Report
<shakes his head in disgust and shame>
one year has passed since we picked the 30 new network business models to fill out our portfolio and the results are in:
NAS 100 - +48.5% (QQQ - +47.4%)
NASDAQ - +34.2%
NNBM 30 - +26.8%
S&P 500 - +12%
DJIA - +3.7%
HHH - <-12.4%>
i had higher expectations. we were up 80% after three or four months but it was all downhill from there. we considered re-evaluating and trading some of the stocks out at the six month interval but didn't get much response and we made no changes. i don't know that it would have helped the final outcome for the year though. at the six month interval the HOT sector we were looking at was "wireless" and those companies did no better than the ones we already had for the second six months (maybe worse).
when we began, the HOT sector was internets (dot coms), then came the wireless sector, then broadband infrastructure and fiber optics, and lately - NOTHING is HOT.
on the whole, the market sucked, since april it has really been smelly - not sure what the exact definition of a bear market is to you but to me it's what we've been in since april 15, 2000. the best performance has been turned in by the NASDAQ 100. the NASDAQ composite did almost as well. technology is king, and the kings of the kings (NAS 100) are still the biggest winners.
i think the transiting of the millennium had an unusual effect on the market this year. first there was the super-hyped scare of the possible catastrophic effects of the Y2K computer bug and then there was a big let down after the year 2000 arrived and it looked just like any other day. no fantastic changes or surprises, no second coming of christ, no immediate quantum leap in technology - just another day.
the fed really pumped up the money supply in preparation for Y2K disasters or money panics, then they brought it right back down in january. they upped the interest rates on us all year, and there was a hell of a lot of taxable gains from 1999 that people had to sell stock to cover in april. the combination of those events caused stock prices to drop and caused a hell of a lot of margin calls that forced even more sell offs into the summer which has never been a good time for market growth anyway. when will it turn around? give it another month.
i think the most disheartening thing to me about the NNBM performance is that we could have just bought the QQQ without any stock research, nail biting, hours of reading, studying, debating other investors on the boards, etc., etc., etc. we could have gone fishing, sailing, or even left the planet and done better than we did.
OTOH, we did learn a lot about technology and market psychology and we saw a few of our picks grow over 100%.
our top three picks:
BRCM - +354.6%
EMC - +178.6%
SUNW - +153%
our worst performers:
ATHM - <-68%>
RHAT - <-64.1%>
LU - <-52.6%>
that QQQ sure looks good at this point. i'd like to hear any other comments anyone has about our NNBM performance or anything else about the past 12 months in the market that i may have overlooked that might help us be better stock pickers or investors for the coming year.
my best investment this year was spending time with you, sharing our lives and getting to know all of you better.
thanks. love you all.
-polvie |
