Charlie, Pi
Thanks for the thoughts. Stock looks like someone wants it to tread water. The breakout to 16 on heavy vol a few weeks ago looked to me like a modest buyer came in on the lift to 15+, and shorts scrambled well above where he seemed to back off. Short interest was way up last month, even counting the covering on that day. And it looks like more shorting since then.
Shorts getting awfully cocky? Greedy to keep a position open at this price, much less put on a net new one. One interpretation of tape is that they are trying to cover without letting it run up, hold it under water, see if the 'pain' frees up more shares. They're also hoping for another 'break' in the market, to allow them to compress the spring a few more times.
Money will come off sidelines sometime, when it does the move up is fast. Shorts will need to get out of the way, and will feed the tiger. If I was short here, I'd be going to the sidelines, like you (charlie) did with your long positions in late august. (good call, that)
Can't call the timing here and now, but noting that general pessimism has risen, and we need this for the bottom. Still a few generals to shoot, before the troops can rally? Who's left? What are the triggers, both ways?
I like your observation that the institutions need a big quarter here, and think we get it. A few more weeks of cleansing, give or take, then they start moving in? Sooner would be better, but can see later.
Patience wins the game, hands down.
Regards! |
