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Technology Stocks : Advanced Micro Devices - Moderated (AMD)
AMD 203.14-0.8%Jan 9 9:30 AM EST
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To: that_crazy_doug who wrote (10870)9/30/2000 1:23:47 PM
From: Charles RRead Replies (3) of 275872
 
Crazy

<Depends a lot on what the right decision is. >

In this industry, being single sourced is almost never a right decision.

<If P4 turns out to be the greatest thing since sliced bread (when it eventually comes out) He's made the right decision. >

More and more P4 looks like an underweight. It may have the MHz crown late this year or early next but it looks like AMD is no danger of losing performance crown any time in the near future. However, with right marketing and right chipsets that could be sufficient for Intel to reclaim the high-end. But, we are talking about Q2/Q3 2001 for that to unfold.

<He'll be the only Intel loyal left, and he'll get lion's share of the slow quantity shipments of p4s. >

Dell will get what it wants from Intel regardless of using AMD. By any metric, Dell is #1 or #2 player in the market. No supplier can ignore a customer like Dell. Especially if the other players are no more loyal to you.

<If AMD still is sitting in the driver's seat, then he made the wrong decision. >

Clearly AMD is in driver seat today.

<(IMO the decision to remain single source has likely already been made) >

This industry is too dynamic to have permanent allegiances. Dell-Intel bond is strong but will break if there is enough pressure on it. Dell will be fuming mad if his high end systems are 2 or 3 speed grades behind competitors for Christmas. That can create some serious damage to the "performance" positioning of Dell. And, lower ASPs could mean there is no 30% growth for Dell this year - investors are not going to like that.

Chuck
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