10 years ago who would have thought that bandwidth would EVER outstrip throughput??
Anyway, I can see clear to a SUNW market cap of around $450B by early-to-mid-2002. After that, I'm not sure. What do you think????
Hi Cheryl,
From my vantage point only superlatives like "astounding", "spectacular", "awesome" attach themselves to SUNW. What I see makes me think that I must be "blinded" by the SUNW.
After listening to the last two webcasts,-- the latest on the Net Effect, and the prior one on the Cobalt acquisition,-- I see an unmistakable paradigm shift that forces all other software and hardware vendors to hop on board or become marginalized.
The Network has truly become the Computer, and the brand on it is SUNW.
Over the last 2 years SUNW has gone from a market cap of about $20 billion, to now almost $200 billion. That is certainly great growth for any company. Can it possibly accelerate from here? Extrapolating gives about 2000 billion in another 2 years -- yet I don't see growth slowing. I SEE AN ACCELERATION IN THE GROWTH OF SUNW FROM HERE TO 2002. I see all technologies converging on this paradigm -- the key has been bandwidth, and bandwidth is happening.
Certainly I've become insane!
I was flabbergasted by the statement during the webcast (http://sun7.liveonline.net/sun/sun_28.ram at 51 minutes) by what even the presenter called a 'provocative statement" after having revealed the new Sun Blade 1000. Something to the effect:
" Now that I have revealed the hottest workstation available, we are no longer in the workstation business".
He was of course referring to the new "Sun Grid Engine" software (http://www.sun.com/gridware). They have in effect harnassed the unused computing power of the internet to add computational resources where needed. The behemoth standalone computer becomes as antiquated as a house generator compared to a power grid. The age of the compute farm is upon us and their products go all the way down to inexpensive net appliances and up to million dollars servers -- with autographed machines on E-bay, who knows how high.
Since it almost seems delusional to see an acceleration in SUNW's growth, (nothing continues to just go up, and Ken will tell you that we are on the cusp of a bear market, and no stock has ever reached $2 tillion, and how high a P/E ratio can Twister digest without unTwisting) -- your CONSERVATIVE calculation of $450 billion by 2002 helps to add sanity to my 'delusional' perceptions and projections.
All the best,
Michael
P.S. SUNW is reminding me of the Krel computers of the old sci-fi movie "Forbidden Planet". Hopefully SUNW will factor in the 'ID' effect. |
