I don't think it's reasonable to expect that there won't be any losers. Just the opposite, I think it's reasonable to think that we won't appreciate the fundamental reasons to sell at least one of the three stocks until after the price has tanked.
Using the Front Office Game as an example might in fact be a good example that the game can work marvelously well despite initially choosing a stock that ultimately tanks, which I think is truly the more important point to make. My records show that Vantive was "purchased" on May 25, 1998, for a net cost of $2495.25. On 10/24/99 it was "sold" at a substantial loss generating net proceeds totalling only $998.88. That's a 60% loss in 17 months. (All numbers include commissions.)
I was speaking of the losers in the aggregate. Combine the results of Remedy, Clarify, and Vantive and I have a feeling you will see a return which easily beats the market.
I could be way off here, since I'm working from memory, but if I remember correctly Remedy had appreciated 140% and Clarify something like 400%. That yields a 160% return, more than making up for the 60% drop in Vantive. In fact, if Remedy and Vantive each dropped off the face of the earth and lost 100% of their value, then Clarify's appreciation would still have provided a respectable 67% return for those three companies.
Of course, my numbers could be way off as, again, I'm working from memory. If they are correct, though, we see that the Front Office Gorilla Game would have been a successful investment by any normal standards even if the eventual gorilla Siebel had never been included. AFAIK, we haven't thought about that before.
As a side note, this discussion highlights once again that we must always remember to focus not on the success or failure of one stock, but of our entire portfolio. Combining that with Bruce's observation that "Even more revealing is that had Siebel been the only stock "purchased" on that Memorial Day weekend in 1998, the Game would have increased in value 868%. Using the closing value on September 29, 2000, the Game has increased in value 856%. That's not at a bad trade-off for not having to guess ahead of time which of the four leading gorilla candidates would emerge as the gorilla." causes me to submit the suggestion that a list of other basket candidates be included in Project Hunt reports.
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