Mike - Did you happen to read yesterday's WSJ story by Mossberg panning ALL the current USA mobile wireless technologies available today? He didn't have very nice things to say about them. BUT he did leave the future potential open.
Yup, and I tend to agree with his article - and many others like it. The disparity between what we have (ARDIS, Mobitex, CDPD, etc.) and the possible futures, grates, sometimes.
The big buildout awaits. Spectrum has been bought, geographical footprints obtained, standards adopted, and technologies evaluated. Despite the tremendous amount of capital expended for spectrum, the anticipated infrastructure changes will also require huge amounts of capital, and will take years to complete.
I think the markets, particularly the capital markets, and the providers, are taking a collective deep breath before the first commitments begin. These will be "bet the company" choices. The recent downturn in communications, IMO, is a sober evaluation of the cost considerations, and their implications.
As much as I agree with you, Mike, that this recent change in market psychology was instigated by Wall Sreet, I think the recent (unforeseen) OPEC moves gave the investing world pause, and gave strength to Wall Street's dissing of the comms market. What happens to ALL products, sectors, and strategies, in a world made less profitable by increased fuel costs?
I believe that the world will eventually work its way around to understanding that communications is a partial answer to the problems imposed by high fuel costs: it is a sector that will generate superior returns.
Regards,
Jim |
