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Politics : Idea Of The Day
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To: Jill who wrote (33865)10/1/2000 1:17:19 AM
From: PMG  Read Replies (1) of 50167
 
I think the problem is this: the possibily that a company warns is 50%. When a company that warns gets its stock slashed by 30% then the index will be down 0,5 * 0,3 = 15%

This might apply especially for the bellweather stocks and will easily be generalized to 50% of the rest of the index. This would amount to a loss of 7,5% on th index which would put the NDX to 3302,25. Why not!?

As the overall condition of the financial markets has become real dangerous (more losses will case a recession) I expect the FED to give some motivating comments. This might save the markets from getting below this levels, at least for a short time.

I think that the cases of INTC, AAPL have destroyed a lot of confidence in valuation. Nobody is safe anymore. And I think that the FED and the Bank of England wouldn't have given support to the Euro if the situation would not be really serious.

Then I am thinking of Soros' boom-bust-cycle theory and ask myself, if it could apply here. If it applys, we will have an exaggeration to the downside.

I see all the great innovations which made the "new economy" happen, but I also know that in a system with competition there are no sustainable superior profits. And all these innovations have been developed three and five-fold and the implication of globalisation is also standardisation. You don't need 50 Yahoos. WDCMA is as good as CDMA2000. So all the gains in productivity will pay out to consumers but will not necessarily result in large profits.

All these concernes can be wiped out as long as the vision is present and confidence is there. But... maybe last week something went broken BWDIK...

Regards,

PMG
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