I don't necessarily think that INTC, DELL and GTW will set the stage
agreed 100% loudly... let me amplify
in early y2000, we saw what the media called "bifurcation"
the OldEconomy split from the NewEconomy
Naz kept rising while Dow kept sliding
then came the 35% decline in the Naz
Dow has been range-bound now for 12-16 months
the Naz contains the growth engines on WallStreet
newer tech firms are exploding with growth, some with double-digits
oldline doggy firms are struggling to innovate at all
graybeards are coming to realize: join the movement or languish
I BELIEVE WE ARE IN THE MIDST OF THE 2ND "bifurcation"
first came Microsoft in April falling down 30%
Rick Sherlund steered it down with talk of single-digit growth
as the PC sector has matured, growth has seriously slowed
Microsoft managed to blame much of the problem on Win2000 transition rollout
(also called Millenium)
then came the 2nd shoe with Intel warning of slower growth
this confirms the slowing of the PC sector on the hardware side
Apple's warning is simply an ECHO of the Intel warning
Apple resides in the artist loft where advertising, marketing, and some publishing live
fortunately, the two stories were spaced one week apart
the 2nd "bifurcation" is now seeing NewTech separating from OldTech
technology has broadened in a great diverse blossoming
communications, broadband, fiberoptic, semiconductors lead the way
NEW high technology now has left the PC world behind in growth
it relies on the PC for monitors, controls, tools
it uses the same Pentium processors in strong servers
but this NewTech separation does not require the PC to spearhead new growth
expect PC-centric firms to struggle in the next several months
expect firms specializing in connectivity from PC to the small/medium/large information pipes to thrive
gonna be interesting, gonna be full of airpockets
gonna involve great growth firms to be temporarily damaged unjustly
there exists an OldEconomy element to the OldTech world
Microsoft might be much more vulnerable than Intel
Intel is involved in more than PC processors
they got network interfaces, soon telecom chips, and more
Microsoft has dipshit internet subsidiaries, interest in behemoth media concerns, all the while its mainstream product lines must now compete on a level field with the likes of powerhouse SunMicro
the 2nd bifurcation is underway
less savvy pundits, editorialist regard "tech is tech" and will miss the distinction between OldTech and NewTech
just read a great metaphor
fiberoptic is like a giant snake that just ate a pig
the pig is the first round of broadband implementation
after a little digestion, the snake can take another meal
it needs big meals
2001 will be big
Uniphase, Nortel, Juniper, Sycamore, Extreme, and others will lead the way
so many others, such as Corvix, Avanex, Terabeam, will create new niches
dont be fooled by pockets of slowdowns within the tech world
some will come from endemic OldTech maturation
others will come from pauses and growth pains among NewTech expansion
cool, sorry for preaching
/ Jim |
