Hi Frank, check this out..Bush leads 46%-43% in Tennessee poll...
Even the people of Tennessee recognize WhopperAl for what he is. Namely, a lying phony limousine liberal.
Contrast this with how Texas will vote for Bush overwhelmingly. The people in your home state should know you better than anyone else. And the more Tennessean's knows about BurgerKingAL, (home of the WhopperJunior) the more they want to vote for a Texan. Pretty revealing, Gore may not even win his own home state.....
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By Bonna M. de la Cruz / Staff Writer
tennessean.com
Republican presidential candidate George W. Bush has pulled ahead of Democrat Al Gore in Tennessee with a three-point lead that puts the candidates in a statistical dead heat, a new joint poll by The Tennessean and the Chattanooga Times-Free Press shows.
Bush polled 46% to Gore's 43% in the telephone survey taken last week by Mason-Dixon Polling & Research Inc. of Washington, D.C. The poll of 625 registered Tennessee voters who say they vote regularly had a margin for error of 4 percentage points.
The poll shows Green Party candidate Ralph Nader at 2%, Reform Party candidate Pat Buchanan at 1% and the undecided vote at 8%.
A statewide poll in March by The Tennessean showed Gore leading Bush by 6 percentage points. A year ago, Gore was up by 7 points.
"Gore has always had a slight lead and with a lot closer margin than he probably would have liked to have had in his home state," Mason-Dixon pollster Brad Coker said.
Tennessee, however, appears to be matching a national trend showing Bush taking hold, Coker said.
"The bottom line is, Tennessee is in play."
John Geer, a Vanderbilt University political science professor who is teaching a class on the presidential campaign, said that despite the survey, he thinks Gore's home-state advantage will give him the win.
Gore has not personally campaigned much in Tennessee, nor has he spent advertising dollars here, indicating he's confident, Geer said.
"In light of candidate behavior, Gore is likely to carry the state, but I wouldn't bet your house on it."
Tennessee has always been a good indicator of how the presidential race is shaping up in the rest of the country.
"It's very, very close," Geer said. "You've got a public that is slightly tired of the Democrats being in power, but at the same time you have a roaring economy and a moderate Republican who has not alienated voters. And either candidate is not without his flaws."
With the race so tight, the upcoming presidential debates, including one Tuesday in Boston, will be critical, he said.
"Our polls have shown Al Gore with a consistent lead in this battleground state," said Roy Herron, Gore's campaign director in Tennessee, who finished up a two-week campaign tour yesterday of all the state's 95 counties.
"We think Tennesseans will back their fellow Tennessean, because Al Gore is on the side of working families."
David Kustoff, Bush's campaign director in Tennessee, disagreed.
"The support Governor Bush has attained is reflective of his positive leadership style, his stance on all the major issues and the general belief people have in his credibility.
"The fact that people in Tennessee best know Al Gore and the fact this race is as close as it is demonstrates in large part Tennesseans don't support Gore."
Favorability ratings
Although Gore generally polled better than Bush on issues that have surfaced in the campaign, Gore's favorable rating plunged to 44% and his unfavorable rating climbed to 38%, the most extreme levels since The Tennessean began tracking his name recognition in 1992.
Bush's favorable rating held steady at 46%, although his unfavorable rating dipped to 29% from 33% six months ago.
"I am not terribly enamored by either candidate running," said Susan Hannah, 45, of Knoxville, referring to the leading candidates. "I feel like this election is about the lesser of two evils."
As an undecided, she is the type of voter the campaigns are trying to woo in the home stretch. Hannah, who is in the insurance and real estate planning business, participated in the poll and agreed to talk to The Tennessean.
She wants to learn more about the candidates' plans for education, Social Security and prescription drugs -- topics that have dominated the campaign trail -- before she makes up her mind.
She usually leans Republican but is opposed to Bush's proposals to divert some public education funds into private schools and to allow young workers to invest a small portion of their payroll taxes into equity or bond markets.
As far as Gore is concerned, "I don't like him," Hannah said.
"I have a difficult time envisioning him as being a strong leader. My personal opinion is that he's been a 'yes man' most of his life."
Value and character
The Texas governor appears to hold the advantage when it comes to questions of value and character.
When respondents were asked which candidate would do a better job encouraging high moral standards and values, Bush won 51% to Gore's 32%.
A majority of the poll respondents said they didn't link Gore with the negative sentiment surrounding President Clinton. But Gore may have developed some credibility problems of his own, Coker said.
When the poll asked how much responsibility Gore shares for the president's improper conduct, 57% of respondents said none. Forty-one percent said he shared considerable or some responsibility.
The timing of the poll may have been a factor.
Gore had enjoyed a significant bounce after the Democratic National Convention in August, where he told the audience he stood before them "as my own man."
"One of the things Gore did very well in the convention and the week after was put a lot of distance between himself and Clinton. I think voters liked that a lot," Coker said.
Gore has had a couple of tough weeks lately, though, where he came across as a politician who says one thing and does another, the pollster said.
In one instance, Gore proposed to tap the nation's emergency oil reserve to bring down gasoline and heating oil prices.
Coker said it appeared like a political reaction that was orchestrated with the Clinton administration, which did just that.
In another, he condemned the movie industry for peddling violent films to underage youngsters. Then, in the words of Mary Matthews, 62, a retiree in Gallatin, "you turn around and collect money from them," referring to Gore's subsequent Hollywood fund-raiser. She plans to support Bush.
"I don't trust Gore. He changes his mind whichever way the wind is blowing and who he's talking to," Matthews said.
Alice Burgess, 70, a retired nurse in Murfreesboro who participated in the poll, said she had not decided whom to support although she is leaning toward Gore because he's a Tennessean with a history and family she's familiar with.
"Al's been up there so long, he should know something," said Burgess, who says when her son was a child he played with a young Gore, whose aunt lived in the same neighborhood.
Her reservations stem from Gore's credibility problems.
"He talks one way and does another," Burgess said.
Gap narrowing
Gore appears to have lost traction in Middle and West Tennessee, where he continues to lead but by a slim margin. Gore's former congressional district largely covered Middle Tennessee.
Bush closed a 13-point advantage held by Gore in the March poll in Middle Tennessee to just 2 points and a 21-point gap in the Weststate to 8 points.
Bush continues to run strong in Republican stronghold East Tennessee, where he leads Gore by 15 points.
Failing to carry Tennessee would be a blow to Gore, who has never lost an election in the state, having been elected to the U.S. House four times and the Senate twice. He carried the state twice running as vice president.
Gore's theme of helping "hard-working, middle-class families" struck gold with some respondents.
"He's always been a person who's been for America and for hard workers and not the rich people," said Karen Buck, 48, a Clarksville homemaker.
She recounted a tale from Gore's tenure as a U.S. senator when her family appealed for his help recovering her father's Social Security benefits.
John Gilbert, a part-time Metro employee who told pollsters he plans to vote for Gore, said he does not think Bush has the experience it takes to be president.
"The economy is going good. We should stay right with it," Gilbert, 78, said.
Betty Perez, 77, a retiree in Crossville, sees things another way.
"I feel like Gore has been the vice president for several years, and some of these things he's claiming he can fix he should have fixed in the last eight years."
Cynicism colored the comments of other participants.
"I know they talk about issues and everything, but that don't mean nothing to me because when they get into office it all changes," said Donna Batson, 53, of Nashville, a part-time bookkeeper in the family's custom home-building business.
She has already made up her mind to vote for Bush, which is a reflection of her dislike for Gore rather than where the candidates stand on the issues.
"I like Bush's charisma better," Batson said.
"I just think Gore is too nice, too sweet, too everything. ... From day one, Gore has wanted to be president. There's something about him I don't trust."
Bonna M. de la Cruz covers government for The Tennessean. She can be reached at bdelacruz@mindspring.com or 259-8082 |
