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Strategies & Market Trends : The Options Box

QQQ 611.67

-1.9%

Nov 6 4:00 PM EST

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To: Poet who started this subject	10/1/2000 8:29:04 PM
From: Lost to Voodoo	Read Replies (1) of 10876

Just read up on stats for inside days (which Friday was). Generally, they're not as meaningful as most people probably think, but if the close of the inside day is within 25% of the previous day's (Thurs) low then there's a 70% chance of a downside breakout (which I take to mean breaking below the lowest low of either day, i.e. Thurs). Of course we slip into the grey zone right away even for the stats because Friday's close looks to me to be about 10 points shy of the bottom 25% of Thursday's range. So if it doesn't work, it wasn't quite right, and if it does I'll say "See? Told you so." In addition the QQQ and the NDX both are forming symmetrical triangles in the last two weeks, which tend to be consolidation patterns before continuing the trend, which in this case is down. NAZ looks more like a descending triangle, which also leans towards down. I'm still thinking ...down. The only serious technical contraindications I see are that the volume trend through the triangle is up which is contrary to most triangles, and the up days have had stronger volume than down. Which could be enough to tip the scales - we'll see.

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