Paul,
Whatever the market share for ITanium happens to be at the time the SLudgeHumper is introduced, the SludgeHumper will have ZERO - 0 market share at that time.
I think you need another break. You are starting to bumble again. By definition, every processor has a zero market share when it's introduced.
Think of Sledgehammer introduction the same way as Foster introduction. It will be a new processor needing a new motherboard and chipset, but it will exist in an existing segment of the market - that of IA-32 processors. This segment is well established, and all you need is to unplug the hard disk / RAID array from an existing server and plug it to the new Foster or SledgeHammer based and you are in business.
Itanium on the other hand is starting a new segment - that of IA-64 based machines, and since this is a new segment, it has a market share of zero.
Re: x64-86
By the time this market develops (it may be 2 or 3 years from now, 1 to 2 years after SledgeHammer introduction), it will have an installed base of millions of machines. When a software company comes out with software, there will be a ready market.
What is going on with the investments that Intel's "partners" put into Itanium. What is the ROI? Will you show us press releases of smaller players who are going out of business because Itanium is a bust? Probably not, because the players who gambled and lost on Itanium probably let their PR person go before the whole company collapsed.
While Compaq, IBM, Dell and HP can afford the Itanium bleeding, I don't know who else can. It looks like Sun has decided to cut it's losses. HP decided to continue its line rather than wait for the Itanium transfusion.
Silicon Graphics? They are bleeding as we speak, and may not last long enough to saved by Itanium. They may be the first really high profile casualty of Itanium.
I wonder, when these "partners" decide to donate blood to Intel, is there anything that Intel provides in return? Can SGI (if they go bankrupt) sue Intel for not delivering a working part to SGI?
Joe |
