Hello all again...
Here are some more "forest" looking of the Nasdaq
closing of the last 10 years. I'm including the closing
of the last 4 months of each year so we can all take
a look at the historical "fall" rallies, if any.
As you can see on the figure below, only 1998 and 1999
have very decent "fall" rallies. 1990 thru 1992 also had a
relatively decent "fall" rallies as well. On the other
hands, from 1993-1997 (5 years), the so-called "fall" rally
were mediocre if at all.
On the positive note, 1990-1992 had a progressive 8.52%,
11.29%, and 16.06% increase in "fall" rally respectively
leading to the Presidential election in 1992. Do we have
a repeat of the 3 years "fall" rally leading into this
year election? "Hmmmmm....."
However, don't forget that in the 1996 Presidential
election, there were only mediocre increases in the
"fall" rallies. "oohhhhhhh....."
My conclusion based on the figure below is that
statistically, there is no consistent "fall" rally
in an annual basis. Will Year 2000 include another "fall"
rally? My guess is that it is 50/50 at best. Therefore,
IMHO, I will play the rest of this year in a more
defensive stance. Not unlike defensive driving so to speak.
Date Close Change Change 12 mths Change
from Sept. % Change %
-------- -------- ---------- ------ -------- ------
12/31/99 4,069.31 1,323.16 48.18% 1,876.63 85.59%
11/30/99 3,336.16 590.01 21.48%
10/29/99 2,966.43 220.28 8.02%
09/29/99 2,746.15
12/31/98 2,192.68 498.84 29.45% 622.33 39.63%
11/30/98 1,949.59 255.75 15.10%
10/31/98 1,771.38 77.54 4.58%
09/30/98 1,693.84
12/31/97 1,570.35 (115.33 -6.84% 279.32 21.64%
11/30/97 1,600.55 (85.13) -5.05%
10/31/97 1,593.61 (92.07) -5.46%
09/30/97 1,685.68
12/31/96 1,291.03 64.12 5.23% 238.91 22.71%
11/30/96 1,292.61 65.70 5.35%
10/31/96 1,221.51 (5.40) -0.44%
09/30/96 1,226.91
12/31/95 1,052.12 8.58 0.82% 300.17 39.92%
11/30/95 1,059.19 15.65 1.50%
10/31/95 1,036.06 (7.48) -0.72%
09/30/95 1,043.54
12/31/94 751.95 (12.34) -1.61% (24.85) -3.20%
11/30/94 750.32 (13.97) -1.83%
10/31/94 777.49 13.20 1.73%
09/30/94 764.29
12/31/93 776.80 14.02 1.84% 99.86 14.75%
11/30/93 754.38 (8.40) -1.10%
10/31/93 779.26 16.48 2.16%
09/30/93 762.78
12/31/92 676.94 93.67 16.06% 90.60 15.45%
11/30/92 652.72 69.45 11.91%
10/31/92 605.16 21.89 3.75%
09/30/92 583.27
12/31/91 586.34 59.47 11.29% 212.50 56.84%
11/30/91 523.89 (2.98) -0.57%
10/31/91 542.97 16.10 3.06%
09/30/91 526.87
12/31/90 373.84 29.34 8.52%
11/30/90 359.06 14.56 4.23%
10/31/90 329.84 (14.66) -4.26%
09/30/90 344.50
Disclaimer
The above numbers were pulled from my 10 years monthly
chart. I did not verify if the data were corrected or
not. It may include typo error. Therefore, read those
numbers with caution. |
