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Biotech / Medical : VD's Model Portfolio & Discussion Thread

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To: Vector1 who wrote (8283)	10/2/2000 8:00:30 AM
From: Arthur Radley	Read Replies (1) of 9719

Vector, It is my understanding that the current market for purgatives is $200 million, but with the growing number of colonoscopies being done I would guess this is a very conservative number. It is also my understanding that the procedure for Visicol is that you take three pills every 15 minutes for 90 minutes or 18 pills total. This procedure is done the day before and the morning of the screening for a total ingestion of 36 Visicol pills per patient per procedure. Take this per procedure and multiply by conservative 7.5 million procedures in U.S. and you get 270,000,000 potential consumation of Visicol pills. I have no idea what they will charge for Visicol, but I would guess that in the order of $1.00 per pill would be in order. If a $1.00 is a realistic number and say they can garner 50% of the market...then we are looking at $135 million in revenue, but my assumption is that the 50% market share will be low. Regardless, if the $135 million is close, then the current market cap of $350 million is a fair value, but doesn't place any value on the other drugs in the pipeline. I'm sort of ambivalent on CBP-1011, but the safety profile looks good and indications are that it doesn't care the side-effects for prednisone, which is the current treatment for ITP. It appears that they will file a NDA within the next few months. The drug that has my attention however is thrombospondin. It is my understanding that they will start clinicals within a short time frame and that they are currently seeking a partner for these trials. If they get a "heavy-hitter" for these trials, then I think the current market cap is way low. In the interim, Visicol will give them a steady stream of revenue and should make them a profitable biotech...and that is a rarity for most of my biotech stocks...profits!

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