William - from the posts of yours I've read over the past year and a half that I have been on SI, it is apparent that you have made some money in investing in internet, b2b, and fiber optic stocks, as well as on stocks in other areas.
I suppose what I find most puzzling about you, though, is that I don't believe I have ever see you post a negative comment on any of your stock picks. Even to this day, you appear to be unwilling to accept that the business models of Priceline or Amazon may be flawed - yet the market appears to be questioning, if not condemning, the business models of these companies. You and I have had long discussions about the viability of business models based on internet advertising - with you consistently emphasizing the benefits of impact and follow-through of the internet medium. Yet today, as Yahoo's stock price falls, the market again is questioning the viability of revenue streams based on internet advertising. Have you changed your position on this subject at all?
In a recent post, you mentioned a number of winning stocks that you had picked - including Ariba, Yahoo, Commerce One, Brocade and Phone.com among others. Are you saying you don't feel ARBA, BRCD or PHCM aren't just a little over-extended? Do you feel these stocks will continue to go up - and if so, on what basis - momentum or fundamental valuation? I trust you don't have your entire portfolio in these speculative plays at the moment.
Please don't take these comments as harsh criticism - but rather as a critique. It would be great to see you just once post a negative comment on a stock that you have picked. I've certainly been wrong in some of the stocks I have picked - I bought YHOO at a pre-split price of 225 only to sell it at 190; I bought AOL at a pre-split price of 160 only sell it at 130; I shorted QCOM at a pre-split price of something like 300 and actually covered at a loss(incredibly stupid move on my part); and I bought AMZN, well, you know I can't even remember at what price I bought AMZN, but let's just say I lost money on it.
As for the outlook as a whole - personally, I would find it difficult to believe that all the recent earnings warnings are company-specific, as you appear to be claiming. Don't you believe that higher oil prices and a continually falling Euro might impact the world economy as a whole? It would be great to see you at least acknowledge that there is a risk of such a thing happening. Initially I questioned GST on his recent "sell" call on the thread - that was some 300 Nasdaq points ago. I'm now willing to admit that GST was on to something - every week, I read and hear more commentary on the positive correlation between slowdowns/recessions and high oil prices. Anyway, it would be great to hear why you think that even though Intel is being impacted by the high Euro, other US manufactures, such as IBM, HP or even GE won't be impacted by the Euro.
As always, it's a pleasure discussing issues with you.
Thanks,
-Eric |
