> "...with a design that, by their own admission, is 100 times too
> expensive to be commercial. Let me put that another way - if the
> joint venture succeeds in getting the price of the engine down 99
> times - a staggering accomplishment - the cost will STILL be twice
> as much as it should be for the engine to be commercial."
Welcome, students, to the mysterious world of Turtlemanian Math,
where 100 / 99 = 2. This is the true reason why Ballard will never
succeed. Observe closely (and pay no attention to the man behind
the curtain):
-------------------------------------------------------------
Let X be a commercially viable cost for a fuel cell.
Let Y be the current cost.
Reducing the price Y 99 times means a cost of 2*X.
If 2*X were commercially viable, then reducing 98 times
would not be, since it would be twice as much as it should
be, i.e. 2*(2*X) = 4*X.
By induction:
Reducing Y by 100 times => cost is X
Reducing Y by 99 times => cost is 2*X
Reducing Y by 98 times => cost is 4*X
Reducing Y by 97 times => cost is 8*X
:
:
Reducing Y by 0 times => cost is 1,267,650,600,228,230,000,000,000,000,000*X
Therefore, Y = 1,267,650,600,228,230,000,000,000,000,000
Conclusion: The Ballard fuel cells are 1.2 * 10^30 times too expensive.
Corollary: When Daimler-Benz says 100 times, they really mean
1,267,650,600,228,230,000,000,000,000,000 times.
-------------------------------------------------------------
OK, now I get it. Yeah, it is too expensive. Thanks for clearing
that up for us Sid. |
