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Technology Stocks : Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN)
AMZN 243.02-0.7%Jan 28 3:59 PM EST
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To: GST who wrote (109379)10/2/2000 5:21:31 PM
From: Bill Harmond  Read Replies (3) of 164685
 
Thanks. I am in fact in Las Vegas today.

Your probability argument is the essence. What makes Sequoia put big money into a startup like Yahoo a few years ago with no established market, low barriers to entry, etc?

I've had this discussion with literally dozens of posters over the past three or four years. I have said repeatedly that buying new economy stocks is public venture investing. That's why I own a basket of them.

Then, every once in a while one in the basket sprints ahead of its competition (fundamentally) like Yahoo did in mid 1997, and you just KNOW...at least I feel strongly enough that it's a "done deal". Maybe it isn't, but its good enough for my purposes. From that point until institutional money gets moving there is a big window of opportunity, and I back my feelings with much more serious money.

That's how I feel about Ariba. To me it's done. Lizzie's not convinced, I am. I think Ariba will surpass Oracle's market cap one day for all the reasons Lizzie outlined, plus the big one she didn't mention: transaction revenue. If Ariba goes to $50 in the meantime, it's just beta to me.

So you can call it wild-eyed speculation or any label you like. This system has made me good money. The only change I made in my strategy is not to trade them like I did, but to stick with them long term (and hence evidently leave myself open to personal insults from denizens of the Amazon thread). I'd be better off if I had kept some earlier finds long term.
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