Portfolio down 1.68%, Dow up 0.46%, Nasdaq down 2.83%, S&P500 down 0.02%, Gilder down 3.0%, Meisler down 3.5%, J-Blimps down 2.1%, Fuel cells/Alt Energy down 2.7%
Note: Nearly identical move to Friday’s drops.
NYSE Volume: 1.02 bln...Adv: 1264...Dec: 1647
Up Volume 546.06 Down Volume 456.79 This is showing the money moving in the NYSE stocks.
Nasdaq Volume: 1.76 bln...Adv: 1422...Dec: 2731 Much more severe than Friday
Up Volume 459.01 Down Volume 1252.02 Two days now of 2/1 declines.
Put/Call ratio 0.71 (Range 0.47 to 0.77) Very bullish in the morning, uglier as day ground on.
Sector Watch
NYSE Comp. ($NYA) 666.37 +3.33 +0.50% Went back above the 50 day EMA.
Nasdaq Comp. ($COMPQ) 3568.90 -103.92 -2.83% 3521 is summer low
Dow Utils ($UTIL) 401.47 +3.25 +0.82% Hurricane. Broke to a 2 year high. Saw DYN and IDA pre-announce earnings upside. This is 1976 redux.
Energy (XLE) 33.43 +0.68 +2.08% Crude oil soared more than 4 percent on expectations that heating oil storage levels at U.S. refineries, now down by more than a third from a year ago, will still be low when cold weather spurs demand in the weeks ahead.
Nasdaq 100 ($NDX) 3457.97 -112.64 -3.15% Leaders falling worse than the sector never good.
Basic Ind. (XLB) 17.75 -0.40 -2.20% Lost most of Friday’s gain on news of higher oil. Now Kuwait alleging Iraq stealing oil near the border.
Paper ($FPP) 245.99 -8.89 -3.49% Another casualty of higher fuel prices. The index has fallen a 33 percent this year.
Biotechs ($BTK) 711.80 -57.92 -7.52% MEDI dropped 26.32% on downgrade saying pipeline is weak until 2003 and sales of top drug weak in Europe.
Retailers ($RLX) 793.15 -19.42 -2.39% Sector struggling with economy slowdown. Costco Wholesale Corp. (COST) dwopped $2, or 5.7 percent, to close at $32.94. Costco was among those dropped from PaineWebber's list of highlighted companies. Industry leader and Dow Jones Industrials component Wal-Mart Stores Inc. (WMT) also was booted from the PaineWebber list, taking a blow to its stock Monday as well. Wal-Mart slumped $1.88, or 3.5 percent,
Gold ($XAU) 48.89 -1.02 -2.04% Nothing really notable, other than dollar is still strong making gold expensive for foreigners. U ABX AEM MDG FCX HM PD NEM PDG
REITs ($DJR) 133.63 -2.86 -2.10% After following the 50 day EMA for weeks, it gapped down towrd the 200 day EMA.
Other techs continue to sink
Disk Drives ($DDX) 129.87 -8.54 -6.17%
Internet ($IIX) 487.21 -15.34 -3.05%
DOT ($DOT) 677.87 -35.75 -5.01%
Semis ($SOX) 833.37 -18.20 -2.14%
Portfolio Watch
IDA up 1.62% Electric utility expects to post in excess of a 50% increase in Q3 earnings. Estimate would put EPS at approx. $0.89 vs earnings of $0.60 a share anticipated by Wall Street.
Note: Yahooooo!
MET up 0.48% Salomon Smth Brny downgrades provider of insurance and financial services to NEUTRAL from OUTPERFORM rating and price target of $25.
Note: This downgrade really is a valuation one.
IRF down 8.66%. International Rectifier Unveils Hyperfast- and Very Soft-Recovery Diodes That Maximize Power Factor Correction Circuit Performance
Note: Will sell if drops 4% more. I reread my cc notes and revs only suppose to increase5% or so.
CHINA down 7.51%. I would have sold it but volume was exceptionally low.
SNCI down 5.95%. One 10K sell.
INKT down 6.41%. Any thing net is red. Big selling today.
Other stocks
Dynegy (DYN) 57 5/256: Company issues upside preannouncement for Q3; expects earnings per share of $0.55 excluding one-time gains, current First Call estimate is $0.50; cites outstanding performance from North American trading activities and successful execution of core energy convergence business strategy;
Covad (COVD) down 10.28%. DSL company hitting new 52wkLO.
Enzo Biochem, Inc. (ENZ) 54 7/8 +6 3/8 (+13.1%): Rallies after company reports positive data on Phase I HIV test of engineered cells in bone marrow. Stock has surged 3 pts over the past 15 minutes.
Xerox Corp (XRX) after hours. Company warning that it sees a Q3 loss of $0.15-0.20 per share versus current estimate of $0.12 profit;
Shopping List
I think I will track the ones close to buy points to save time.
Caterpillar (CAT) up 10.48% PaineWebber downgrades to NEUTRAL from ATTRACTIVE; lowers price target to $30 from $45. Firm cites Q3 downide warning and believes that the back-endloading of earnings palces Q4 at risk; firm reduces earnings estimates for 2000 and 2001 to $2.85 and $3.00 respectively.
Note: Construction spending in August up 1.4%, first green since March.
UAL down 1.04%. Five red days in a row.
SLAB down 7.39% Added to portfolio today. $36 is weak support. Volume exceptionally low for such a decline. This my play on the ADI pre-announcement earlier. Sector is strong.
ISLD up 0.33% (Strictly a bottom play, one to enter in the mid teens) To provide Reuters (RTRSY) with a managed solution of hosting, network services and live streaming services for the launch and ongoing distribution of original news programs.
Note: They gapped it up 14% on the news and sold it off. When you see news without numbers, often they create a sucker’s rally for a declining stock.
KANA down 4.49%. (Strictly a bottom play. Unprofitable with rev jumps of 30% sequentually)
Note: Anotehr gapped up 105 and sold off. They are killing the day traders with these swings.
ACCD flat (20% sequential revs and EPS. Re-entry when knife stops falling)
Steady buying and MM’s gapped down and more bought so this is tempting.
KEYN down 9.35% (steady rev growth of 400%, present pe is 200 if only 0.03 EPS per quarter, re-entry on up trend or $20)
Saw 50K buy but two 20K sells.
PRSF down 15.16%. (Leading billing software company plagued by insider sells re-entry $30) Company announced this morning that WorldCom's (WCOM) UUNET division has selected Portal's Infranet billing platform for use with its branded services products worldwide.
Note: Very close to re-entry. Saw 200K buy at the last hour.
AMD down 3.12% (historic 30 rev growth and pe of 22 INTC is 42 pe and 17% growth, falling knife. Need to see relative strength work up to 50. Re-entry at $20)
Big selling at the end.
KOPN down 3.82% (Leading mfr of Cyberdisplays, 50% dependent on CNXT, $20 entry point)
Well below entry, but strong selling. Ugh. MM gapped it up and sold it off today.
CYTC down 8.41% (thinprep leader in pap smear alternative, off 50% of its high, what bugged me, re-entry $28)
Steady selling
Watch List
ADI (have to get near $70 to buy, pre-announce good quarter)
MCDT (Want re-entry in low $90, BRCD quarter expected)
CREE (LED king $80 re-entry target 136pe, 85% rev growth rate)
NTAP (NAS king, $65 re-entry target, 631pe, 123% rev growth)
JNPR ($140 for re-entry)
SDLI (Great quarter last time, $250 would be great re-entry)
AMAT (This is the premier semi-equipment company. If it comes close to the lows of $36, I will pounce.)
A (optical and pteomics play down low, $40 re-entry)
AKAM (leader in sector, bargain at $35)
Summary
The Nadaq opened up 40 points and people piled in thinking a rally after Friday’s decline. Around 10am it faltered. I waited until 3:30 to buy as it accelerated.
Finally got into SSTI at a reasonable price. Of course catching the falling knife is never recommended, but it will go up faster than the Nasdaq if the techs decide it wants to run. Handspring announced component shortages and I now have two companies representing the largest sectors of shortages; Tantalum capacitors (KEM) and flash memory (SSTI). Will hold them through earnings.
Seeing people buy puts in the drug sector thinking that Gore will attack the sector. Most forget that both Bush and Gore will propose Medicare re-imbursement to seniors for prescription drugs. Whether congress approves it is another matter. This policy will help drug companies not hurt them. A cap on drug co-payments hurts the sector, re-imbursement helps it.
nyse.com has the site for margin debt. $247,560,000 on margin. Quite a frightening number as I thought the spring wiped this down some. Only 40B wiped out. I thought we might have returned to the levels of 1999 with $150B. If the Nasdaq drops 15% more the highflyers will drop 30% as margin calls are realized.
Jack |
