That's right bulk of which I have sold already, I should of sold PPRO and CMRC, I did sell half of my EXTR, but I was out of the pocket for the last half of the day. We are getting the INTC fall out now, the market was in denial afterward, it is now accepting and however wrong it might be, it is applying that acceptance across the board. The money part of the sentence is understanding where and what the market is selling off incorrectly. Me, the best case scenario in picking stocks are ones that do not join in and trend sideways to little down during the selling. Frankly I give myself 40% chance to being right about it getting real bad. What we are seeing now are stocks that I thought would hold it together joining in, so there is nowhere to hide, a lot of time that kind of action is an end stage tell to a sell off. I have problem with that tell, and that is the reason for my bearish of bear cases. In the past there was something that was great on the near term horizon, I thought the network stocks and the build out for of the broadband net as a whole would skirt the selling but the suppose telecom slow down blew that right out of the water it looking like that build is going to take longer then I thought. So, what will be the catalyst going forward? That needs to be answered. Will it be price, the fed lowering rates, earnings, clearing up of the suppose telecom selling (this is a weak reason because it would be hard to have a pocket as well defined and narrow as network stocks as a driver and pretty much fact now that the build out has a big bottleneck to get over, the last mile), or something wonderful and new?
Greg |
