Bullsky: re: Gold's 24% supply deficit...
Amazing similarities to the dark days of $8 Oil aren't there ?
XAU 50 now, to OSX 50 then ? - same feel, same sentiment, same value, same upside potential...
Absolutely no one bullish and the sector & it's supporters are literally openly ridiculed.
Oil at the bottom had the market predicting the end of OPEC & $5 eternally cheap Oil - GOLD, has no value, doesn't matter, is irrelevant, will never bounce, has no reason to ever do so etc...
re: the 70% collapse in (Gold) exploration spending = deja vu all over again ~ and we know what this caused in the oilpatch.
Consolidation occuring - M&A activity rampant.
Significant short interest in individual stocks.
Alltime low valuation multiples & 2-5yr & alltime lows being put in.
Actually; Gold & PM's are even a bit better risk vs. reward play than what the oilpatch was in the fall of 1998 imho...
The significant difference; is the derivative positions in Gold - the upside appreciation potential from what could be the "mother of all short squeezes" is immense & Gold and PM's historic speculative upside cycle has allways exceed that of Oil.
I've got tight, tight, tight stops on all Oilpatch stocks. I'm hoping that tech rallies (for the last time imho) here in late October-early Nov - stabilizing the market & we get an end of the year OSX rally thru 165ish - as I'll be cashing in lots of Oilpatch chips at that level & will be rotating the proceeds to un-hedged Gold & PM mining stocks as long as the XAU is 50ish, or under. I'd love to see what I would view as a leverageable XAU 40-43 final capitulation blow off... that will be "leverage & call city" for me personally.
Amazingly; Gold can have huge - near dot.com-esque returns on near clock-work perfect 7 year cycles and as every cycle aged, by year 5,or 6; Gold's demise was once again predicted and those numerous former heady performances & returns were either forgotten, held in disbelief - or explained away by yet another "new paradigm" and Gold no longer mattered....
Of few things in this world I am 110% sure; one of them is this:
GOLD MATTERS ! - IT ALLWAYS HAS & IT ALLWAYS WILL... |
