OT on the next big thing You are right about Storage and the network, the shovel makers make out in the end. What I want to know is what is beyond storage and the network? What will be the fruits of our labor from all this build out we are going through now.
Suppose you are an investor in 1981, looking forward into the PC revolution. What bets could be made? Either low-level ones, in infrastructure, such as Intel (in hardware) and Microsoft (in software), or high level ones, such as Hayes (in hardware) and WordPerfect (in software). Which paid off better?
Suppose you are an investor in 1991, looking forward into the IP revolution. What bets could be made? Either low-level ones, in infrastructure, such as Cisco, or high level ones in service providers, such as Amazon. Which paid off better? Which was more touted as an internet beneficiary, however?
The very interesting thing is, the builders of infrastructure always move up to capture higher margin "user level" businesses. Microsoft capturing the desktop apps market is a great example of this. By the same token, Intel doesn't make PC's, but "Intel inside" has become almost a PC brand in itself... and Cisco is expanding into end to end networking software solutions.
The players at the higher levels of the chain never seem to be able to scale downward into infrastructure. Amazon will probably never build a router, and WordPerfect never made an OS.
We are now entering the post-Internet age, when networks are ubiquitous, and the key is not merely having a network, but doing things with it. I think the "shovel makers" will move upward to capture more of the real value, as soon as it emerges exactly where the real value sits. Someone like Netapp or Juniper will be better poised to capture this value than a bitplayer like Microstrategy or PurchasePro.
Comments very welcome. |
