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Pastimes : Clown-Free Zone... sorry, no clowns allowed
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To: RJL who wrote (23859)10/3/2000 9:14:31 AM
From: AllansAlias  Read Replies (1) of 436258
 
The real trouble is that calls that are wrong on the way down are forgotten on the way up. People will be saying "I told you so." when we rally. A precondition for clown-sized losses is a diabolically short-term memory.

If a child moves to a new house and sees a bird come to window for 3 days in a row he would say that "Pretty bird visits me everyday." He has no notion of sample size. IMO, this is the central problem with the clown mind.

If we were to drop to 2000, it would be a nightmare. They would think it the end of our way of life. Others however, would see that winter is coming and the bird has gone south for a while -- we would only be returning to a still quite bullish equilibrium: the principal uptrend line -- a sign that spring is on its way and a good time to go long the bird.
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