<font color=red>some stat updates
<07:58am EDT 3-Oct-00 Salomon Smith Barney (Jonathan Joseph 415-955-4998) INTC
SIA Data Shows Unit Deceleration Continues
SALOMON SMITH BARNEY Industry Note
Semiconductors
SIA Data Shows Unit Deceleration Continues
October 2, 2000 SUMMARY
* Dollars on the rise, but units decline slightly.
Jonathan Joseph August shipments according SIA continued to
415-955-4998 accelerate slightly to 53% from 50% in July. Units
jonathan.joseph@ssmb.com continued to decelerate slightly, from 28.1% growth
Mark Bertagnolli in July to 27.7% in August. We continue to believe
415-955-4904 that the 34% growth tallied in February marked the
mark.bertagnolli@ssmb.com cyclical peak.
* All geographies strong. As in July, Asia-Pacific
showed the greatest growth in August, up 60% yoy
compared to 57% in July. The Americas were also
solid, jumping 50% over last year, up from July's
46%. Japan accelerated to 54% from 52% in July,
while Europe was flat at 46% growth.
SUMMARY (CONT.)
* PLD and analog strong, Flash slowing. Flash continued to have the highest
yoy growth rate of 147%, although this represented a deceleration from 156%
in July (and 220% in February). PLDs continued to show strength at 104%
growth, in line with the growth rates of the prior two months. Standard
linear products slowed slightly from the torrid pace it held last month,
dropping to 69% growth from 73% in July. DSPs have leveled off at 55%,
marking the same growth rate as in July. The biggest gain came from DRAM,
which went from 89% to 106%, mostly due to higher ASPs. Bit growth
decelerated slightly from 80% to 76%.
* We believe the data, particularly the continued deceleration in units
describes a slow rollover in the sector from the cyclical peak set in
February. Shipments continued to accelerate slightly in the month largely
because of easy comparisons for DRAM ASPs which began to decline sharply in
September. As a result, we would expect August or perhaps September to
represent the cyclical peak in shipments. |
