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Strategies & Market Trends : ahhaha's ahs
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To: Boplicity who wrote (131)10/3/2000 11:59:16 AM
From: ahhahaRead Replies (2) of 24758
 
Your approach of assuming some vague macro environment and then isolating which companies will be the beneficiaries is not a constructive way to approach investment. For example, the view that computing was moving from the mainframe to the PC was a mistaken reason for buying PC oriented companies over the two decades during which it occurred. The PC never displaced the mainframe. The PC was a new market that evolved over a long period of time on its own. How could a alleged movement from mainframe to PC been employed in an investment strategy? Short IBM, long DELL? That's my opinion of your "above".

You can get broadband subscriber growth from the regulars on the ATHM thread. I'd guess ATHM represents 70% of the market and Road Runner, whoever owns that, at 25%.

As for when some significant degree of penetration of the "broadband" market will be achieved, your guess is as good as mine. Knowing that exactly wouldn't enable you to make a dime. You couldn't know it anyway. What defines "broadband"? Does the "broadband" market include DSL and wireless? The FCC doesn't know.

Your approach to investing entails hiding behind big and chic. It's known as the information stream game. As long as you're privy to the Wall Street pump and get in low, it works, as the bigger fools come in later and drive price upward. The problem is that it always ends disastrously. When you play that game you have to sell on the way up. A good example is EMC. It's a pig waiting to be slaughtered. What is the proof? QCOM.
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