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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials

AMAT 223.95

+1.7%

3:59 PM EST

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To: 16yearcycle who wrote (37704)	10/3/2000 2:13:09 PM
From: Kirk ©	Read Replies (2) of 70976

My 2¢ thoughts to all (if you care, worth what you paid!): Now I am caught up...been doing some mad calculations to see where I might buy back the few shares I took out to protect profits (I sold on 1/18 just 12% of my position to be safe way too early $68.7, but I got 150% of original investment out and so I am a winner even if the stock goes to zero.) Here are my thoughts: 1- We all know the NASDAQ was driving the stock to record valuations. We were even giddy and debating with Katherine about possibly the cycle being gone for good. I remember commenting that this might be the sign of a top as us bulls were LOOKING FOR REASONS for it to go even higher.... too bad I didn't act! 2- You NEVER know where the top will be or what piece of news the market will take to cause a correction or even a local bear market. Those that took some profits on the way up are "less sad" than those that stayed fully invested but it still remains to be seen if we can buy back in low enough to make up for the tax hit... I think I need to buy back at $48 to be even for taxes (considering a 30% hit) 3-We might be draining the NASDAQ bubble and the stocks will go down to get back to Fall99 levels. Some are there already and would be the first place I'd look to buy (and I have). stockmaster.com 4- 67% off the peak….seems about like a good bottom point… Perhaps there is a Fibbonicci(sp) number around here? Perhaps 62% where traders look to get back in. 5- LRCX looks like it has met the condition of #3 & #4 above and even has one successful test on lower volume. dcharts.stockmaster.com Perhaps we should put our heads together and look for other stocks that have also put in a potential bottom and make a list? 6- We MIGHT be in the "Capitulation Phase" now for the semi equipment bear market. When you read the bulls that know the sector talking about it possibly going to $30's…. it might turn. I prefer to stick to Plan #5 now… only buy stuff where you see blood in the streets (should I copy this post to that thread?) Wow...too many thoughts at once... 8) I still give even odds that we have an "Abby Rally" as she took money out of tech to start the NASDAQ correction and now she has given them the go to buy, but I am not sure if she has moved her portfolio another 5% back into technology that she took out in March. no change in rates bias towards possible inflation...no change

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