Formerly About Applied Materials Message Board

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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials

AMAT 252.25

+0.9%

Nov 28 9:30 AM EST

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To: Proud_Infidel who wrote (37760)	10/3/2000 5:20:00 PM
From: Cary Salsberg	Read Replies (1) of 70976

Brian, I think a risk/reward analysis is more useful than basing one's current decision on the fact that one's previous decision cost 50%. How long will the cycle last? What is the earnings stream to the peak? How far will sales, earnings and price fall in the downturn? What will the price do from here to the next bottem? Will the rate of technology growth slow from current rates? What will slower growth do to PEs, many of which are still excessive? How will a PE meltdown affect the already low semi-equip PEs? I found 96 AMAT posts awaiting me, but no quantitative scenarios have been developed to support a buy/sell/hold decision. I know a lot is at stake for many and emotions are running high, but the thread is fighting the tape and should produce a reasonable model for continuing to do so. Cary

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