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Strategies & Market Trends : Ask DrBob
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To: Drbob512 who started this subject10/3/2000 5:53:04 PM
From: p40warhawk  Read Replies (4) of 100058
 
Thinking Out Loud

This will not apply to shorters and daytraders. Don't know if that leaves anyone, but my thinking is this:

One must determine for himself where the "norm" is. That's because stock market gravity always pulls towards the norm. This applies to the market and to individual stocks. Both have their own "norm."

I'm not talking about a 24 hour norm, a weekly norm, or even a longer term norm. I'm talking about THE norm. There always is one.

I believe THE norm for the Nazdaq is about 4500. Because we have been below that for a long time, I feel the "gravity" is on the side of the longs. Things are abnormal now, and that can't last. (am focusing mainly on the internet market here)

It can't last because the problem is technical and not fundamental, unless you consider psychology to be part of the fundamentals--and I don't.

The market is currently looking for any excuse to rally. That's because of the "law of gravity" as it applies to the stock market. The law of gravity was against internets in January, but the opposite is true now.

My internet holdings have suffered a meltdown. If I could think of a more dramatic term I would use it. The law of gravity says it is time for a reversal. The only alternative is another 1929, and who really believes that?
Best,
p40warhawk
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