>>if today was not the bottom, then we have much farther to go<<
I think it's interesting to look at the nasdaq composite's trendlines - since the end of 1992, for example. On a log scale, if you plot a line beginning with the COMPX close at the end of 1992 (676.95) and use a slope of 21.5% per year, the result matches the index peaks in 1997 and 1998, and has become a support line in 1999. Extended to today, this trendline's value is about 3075. Therefore I think we could see the COMPX decline to that level without violating its channel.
There's another (lower) trendline starting at the December 1994 low (719.05), which by using a slope of 24% per year does a nice job of catching the bottoms of 1996, 1997, and most of the lows in 1998. Currently, this trendline is at 2446. I think this would represent the ultimate support level if a worst case decline in the COMPX took out 3075 with lots of momentum.
I'm hoping we have "only" 10% or so downside risk remaining in the NAZ, altho some individual stocks are much more richly valued than others and therefore could see much steeper drops I suppose.
Today sure was brutal - I got creamed on NEON and AAPL! :-( |
