hey p40! THE Norm retired when Cheers ended. But the black art of TA is all about giving a more quantitative sense
to these concepts like "norm"...
"The market is currently looking for any excuse to rally. That's because of the "law of gravity" as it applies to the stock market."
now, now P40. The market didn't exactly see "no rate hike" as an excuse to rally today, did it? When investor sentiment is very optimistic, any negative content is ignored and rallies happen on news that might othertimes
be interpreted as negative. And last time I checked,
the Law of Gravity read: "What goes up must come down."
Not, "What comes down must go up."
REPEAL the law of gravity, I say!
"The only alternative is another 1929, and who really believes that?"
Good point. Nobody believed the 1929 crash would happen before it did, either. But is that really the only other
alternative? If this were to be a replica of 1929, we would
have had much more downside in the weeks following April 17,
instead of going Sideways for the Summer. Historically, what does happen after each speculative bubble episode
is that the market enters a boring normalcy for years,
with few huge gains or losses, until people forget the
pain and seek euphoria again in the market. It happened
after the biotech runup too. When everyone is still conditioned from the past few years into expecting a Big Move - "crash to 3000!" or "rocket to 6000" - that which neither camp expects should happen, i.e., boring stability.
But isn't that exactly what the Fed would like to see?
"My internet holdings have suffered a meltdown. If I could think of a more dramatic term I would use it."
How about "pop!"? That speculative bubble has burst,
and my guess is it will not re-inflate any time soon.
Not to be grouchy. I feel your pain, believe me.
And the stupid moves I made were in spite of knowing better.
Now a suggestion. If you're looking towards retirement.
Look into liquidating holdings you are "hoping" upwards.
Use the capital to sell puts and generate some income.
This is a little-known investment strategy but one of the
most reliable and best in a bull (or sideways) market.
After days like today, find things you think you'd like to
buy, subtract 5% or so, or figure out the next support
level, then sell puts at that level if it looks like
a price where you'd love to own the stock.
If things bounce back up, you'll still have the $$ from
selling the puts to buy the next dip. OR, you may just
want to sell puts on every dip. I mean, why actually buy
stock when someone else will pay you to buy it from them
at a cheaper price than where it is today?
JMHO.
MfN |
