Does anyone know if other small investors hold their ground?
Well, I can't speak for others, but I still have the all shares I bought in the spring of '96. I have added a few times, mostly on downslides (always too early), but it's still a 2+ bagger*. I'm getting ready to buy some more again, since the longer I am involved with the company (and others in the industry), the more I am comfortable with the idea that these folks are not lightweights. (I have sold on upswings my positions in what I now perceive to have lightweight management: GSNX, FSII. I also sold UTEK at a loss since I feared that I had misjudged the CEO's competence, and that I had might as well cut my loss and lick my wounds.)
Anyhow, I'm 48 years old now, so I think the next run up will have to be the last for me. If it takes 10 years, I'll just be retirement age. If it's only 5 years**, I guess I'll wait for another trough and put in part of the gains; but I can't keep the whole thing in any more. If I were 30, I'd stay in until I think silicon is going to be replaced.
* I think a 2+ bagger (down from 5) is pretty good for 4 1/2 years. Using the rule of 72, it takes 10 years to double at 7% (assuming you pay the taxes with outside money, and that you can get 7%.)
** BTW, those periods are conservative, aren't they? Seem to have had 3 big peaks in the last 5 years,
-Alan
N.B. I have been called a dangerous idiot by at least one person on S.I. |
