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Strategies & Market Trends : Mr. Pink's Picks: selected event-driven value investments

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To: Mr. Pink who wrote (14226)10/3/2000 8:49:05 PM
From: F. Lynn  Read Replies (2) of 18998
 
For those Pinkophiles interested in short ideas and aware that the high-yield market can be a highly effective leading indicator of equity prices:
Consider Royal Cruise Lines.
bonds with 7-8 nominal yield are trading around 9.5% YTM.
debt is 67% of capital, leaving company little breathing room as competition with caribbean heats up- caribbean has a clean balance sheet.
supply in the industry is growing at 16%, faster than demand, and big new boats are coming on line in the next few years. pricing will plummet, according to sources, who note that travel agents already report record discounting.
competitor Premier Cruise Lines, a private company, was seized by lender DLJ.
RCL at 25, could be a hat size in 18 months.
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