Richard,
Funny post. Gold makes sense only if you can really predict those unpredictable, unknowable catastrophes. Of course if you could predict them, know they were coming, then they wouldn't be unpredictable, unknowable, yada yada yada.
Nervousness brings out the gold bugs, much as it brought out the Y2K doomsayers. Didn't Yardeni, an otherwise intelligent person, have an entire website devoted to Y2K and the destruction of Western Civ? Maybe it was somebody else. Reminds me of the story of Hitler's bunker (which I won't bore anyone with.) Speaking of ole Adolph, didn't the Swiss government just say something about selling a lot of gold for WWII reparations? A little bird whispered that in my ear, maybe it was on Fox News (fair and balanced, as always). Just what a gold rally needs--more supply on the market.
It's possible, of course, some of the gold worriers will strike it rich, sometime, over the next 5 years. But it's much more likely (and it's "likelyhood" we have to deal with) that NBR will ride to $70, that SMOP.OB will double in accord with JimP's wishes, that my OEI will hit $22 for a double. But it's not my job to convince anyone of anything, just to invest at a pleasant price and harvest at a happier one.
JMVVVHO, of course, plus my dos centavos. |
