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Strategies & Market Trends : Asia Forum

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To: kormac who wrote (9860)10/3/2000 11:44:36 PM
From: CIMA   of 9980
 
In Taiwan, A Sudden Departure

Summary

Taiwan's prime minister has resigned, citing poor health. While
Tang Fei has certainly been ill, the real reason for his departure
may have more to do with politics than his physical condition. Tang
has been a link between the new ruling party and the opposition
Kuomintang. Taiwan's president, Chen Shui-bian, appears confident
he can handle relations with the opposition party and the country's
military.

Analysis

Taiwan Prime Minister Tang Fei resigned Oct. 3, citing ill health.
Most media attention has focused on Tang, a member of the
Kuomintang party (KMT), and his differences with the ruling
Democratic People's Party (DPP) over the construction of a nuclear
power plant. But it appears Tang's motivations for his resignation
are genuinely health-related.

However, President Chen Shui-bian's motivations for accepting the
resignation are very much political. That Chen has accepted Tang's
resignation is notable; he has been unwilling to do so in the past.
Chen brought Tang into the government this spring to act as a link
between Chen's DPP and the KMT, which had ruled Taiwan since its
founding. Tang's military background as a former defense minister
and air force chief also served to calm the armed forces' fears
about Chen's pro-independence stance.
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Letting Tang resign suggests Chen feels fairly comfortable with his
military relations, and less comfortable about tensions within his
own party. The 68-year-old Tang was plagued by health problems
before he took the office of premier. The former defense minister
had a chest tumor removed in April, and was barely able to attend
the presidential inauguration. Frequently complaining about dizzy
spells, Tang was hospitalized in May and August.

Tang accepted the premiership grudgingly, and tried to resign in
May, but Chen would not accept it. Tang tried again in late July,
citing a feeling of responsibility for botched rescue attempts
during a flood. Again, Chen kept him aboard.

Now Chen apparently feels Tang has become more of a liability than
an asset. Chen's administration has taken fire from its own party,
which accuses the president of betraying the platform. Wu Nai-jen,
secretary-general of the DPP, has singled out Tang in particular,
according to Taiwan's Central News Agency.

Chen wouldn't have let Tang leave unless he felt comfortable with
the military, which is tied to the KMT and none too keen about the
DPP.
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For more on Taiwan, see:
stratfor.com
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But Chen seemed to gain the upper hand this summer when he
spearheaded major investigations into corrupt weapons procurement
practices. Thirteen military officers and 15 arms brokers were
jailed, two retired generals were detained, and ten other high-
ranking officers including a former naval commander-in-chief were
questioned in Taiwan's largest anti-corruption drive in years.

Vice Premier Chang Chun-hsiung, a veteran politician and Chen's
right-hand-man, will replace Tang. Chang has only served as vice-
premier since July, but spent 17 years as a legislator experience
that should serve him well as he leads the parliament. Chang's
appointment will douse complaints within the party. But he will
have a difficult time maintaining control over the 123 KMT
legislators who make up over half of the 225-seat parliament.

The result will be even greater political accommodation on the part
of the DPP.
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For more on the Asia see:
stratfor.com
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