p40, my posts never come out the way I intend them --
Apologies for adopting a superior/lecturing tone there..
I wasn't trying to say you're wrong, just illustrate
that there's an equally pessimistic case to be made
to your optimistic points.
As to today's fed statement, my thought was the statement had two parts - one positive, one negative, and that
an optimistic market tends to see the half-full side of
any glass, as opposed to the half-empty side.
The fact that there is not much more room downward for
your or my portfolio will not prevent the market from
going that way.
>>Sounds like you believe the internet market is dead. Can we put you down officially as taking this position?
Hey, I don't claim to be an oracle. I took a lot of
flack when I first started posting on RB that the internets
showed all the signs of a classic speculative episode.
That didn't stop me from trying to profit from it, though.
But yeah, I think it's over. Many 'net companies will reach profitability soon enough to have longevity.
A handful will indeed sustain huge growth rates. CMGI
could be one. But the market in general, as measured by HHH or $GIN won't be back to its 3/2000 high in the next year, IMHO. (assuming they don't replace the companies that fail with hot new ones). I'd guess that HHH would return to something like historical rates of return for tech stocks,
maybe better.
I think there will be new pockets of speculation in biotech and wireless and other sectors. I also agree with your
premise on the internet, but not with the conclusion that
internet stock prices must therefore return 100%.
>>as they say, you haven't lost until you sell.
Here's my variation:
"you haven't limited loss until you sell."
It's these sayings that get me worried. They work while
the bull is healthy. But bulls do die or rest for longish
periods. I think ours is home on the range for a bit.
Consider how far and fast it would have to run to get HHH
back to its high within 3 months!
>Never learned options, and am much too old to start now.
oh, c'mon! I've met you; you could probably toss me out a
window :-) Flack's doing options and he's ANCIENT.
How about trying it on paper for a few months?
Look up prices for puts on your fave stocks at
prices below where they are now, and track what you could
be making...
anyway, just trying to come up with helpful ideas...
MfN |
