Do you think broadband (define it as the cable modems, xDSL that are being installed now), lets say in the next two years, will begin to be THE driver in the high-tech sector?
No. Was cable TV the driver for technology in the '60s? Cable broadband within an HFC regime is mostly an entertainment medium. There are business oriented applications for it, but they will be minor when it comes to revenue streams. You have to be careful about convergence, the convergence of HFC with FTTH. In an important way, the capability of greater of bandwidth, they are quite dissimilar, so that the latter has far greater ubiquitous joint business and entertainment applicability.
If not two years, then when and at what speed?
This can't be known. The sub growth as represented by what ATHM has done can be described as disappointing, but that is due primarily to the incompetence on the side of ATHM management. Many other factors outside of ATHM's control have played into the mix and have made progress difficult, but a dynamic and independent management would have accomplished much more. One of these factors which is a major structural impediment stifling rapid sub growth is the coax infrastructure.
Coax nets are problematic to say the least and is costing far more to support than previously assumed. Perhaps this is only the barrier of learning a new trick so that economies of scale will come with tremendous leverage. It is sure that FTTH won't get out of the starting blocks until HFC is working smoothly and profitably for several years.
If never please state so, then tell us what you believe will be driving the market like the slow access Net we have now did and PC and Client Server model before.
Forget drivers. They've driven. A better question although it is still premature to ask, is what will ride on all this bandwidth? Infrastructure belongs to the NTs. You can't make much money in large companies since they are necessarily bound to slow growth. That's fine for $billion investment funds where risk must be managed through liquidity and it's fine if you seek minimal risk, but if you want superior gains, you have to find something more obscure. |
